http://www.cpf.gov.sg Let's Buzz - Investment http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=264
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http://www.investinfx.com]]> http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=261
An article from the sovereign man sums it up well…the full article can be found herehttp://www.sovereignman.com/


If you haven't heard yet, the United States of America just hit $16 trillion in debt yesterday. On a gross, nominal basis, this makes the US, by far, the greatest debtor in the history of the world.

It took the United States government over 200 years to accumulate its first trillion dollars of debt. It took only 286 days to accumulate the most recent trillion dollars of debt. 200 years vs. 286 days. This portends two key points:

Anyone who thinks that inflation doesn't exist is a complete ***; To say that the trend is unsustainable is a massive understatement. At an average interest rate of 2.130%, Uncle Sam will shuffle $340 billion out the door just in interest payments this year... and it's a number that's only going up. To put it in context, China owns so much US debt that the INTEREST INCOME they receive from the Treasury Department is nearly enough to fund their entire military budget.

It's rather disgusting when you think about it.

Yet when you look at the raw numbers, there is no sign of improvement anywhere on the horizon. Last year, the Treasury Department brought in about $2.3 trillion in tax revenue. They spent $2.9 trillion JUST on -mandatory- programs like Social Security and Medicare, plus the very sacrosanct defense budget.

In other words, the US government was $600 billion dollars in the hole before paying a dime of interest on the debt, or paying the light bill at the White House. In fact the governments own numbers reflect a budget deficit through the end of the decade, i.e. the debt level is only going to get higher. These are their own figures.

In the 19th century, the Ottoman Empire was facing a similar debt crisis. In just 11-years, the Ottoman central government went from spending 17% of its tax revenue on interest payments, to spending over 52% of its tax revenue on interest payments. Then came default. Eleven years. The US is at 15% right now. How long will it take for the interest burden to become unbearable?

History is full of examples of superpowers bucking under the weight of their debt. This is not the first time that it's happened, and it won't be the last.

Sovereign debt is a giant confidence game. Investors buy bonds on the belief that governments can (and will) pay. When that confidence is chipped away, the cost of capital becomes debilitating. And people tend to notice a $16 trillion debt burden.

This is banana republic stuff, plain and simple... and smart, thinking people ought to be planning on capital controls, wage and price controls, pension confiscation, and selective default. Because the next trillion will be here before you know it.

Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”


Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banking mafia.



Value Areas:




ES 1410.75 / 1406.25
POC... 1409.00
YM 13144 / 13078
NQ 2787.75 / 2777.75

Larry Levin
President & Founder- Trading Advantage
TradingAdvantage.com]]> http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=260
The following is Morgan Stanley’s take on it…

Vincent Reinhart, Morgan Stanley: The Message from the Mountains

We have had low expectations for significant news from Chairman Bernanke’s Jackson Hole address for some time for two reasons.

First, he respects that the Federal Open Market Committee is a committee. That is, monetary policy actions are group decisions and it is inappropriate to front run the outcome of a democratic process.

Second, he wants to keep a relatively low profile during an election year when the Federal Reserve is already a hot-button campaign issue. His speeches and testimonies over the past few months—even his semi-annual report on monetary policy—have been short, factual, and uneventful.

What does he have to do? He has to convey that the Fed has been disappointed in the economy’s performance, that policymakers are inclined to provide additional accommodation soon unless there is a significant and sustained improvement, and that they will closely monitor the situation. Essentially, all he needs to do is repeat portions of the statement and minutes from the July-August meeting. Along the way, he will highlight that it is a beautiful venue for a conference, that they are about to hear interesting papers, and that many fiscal challenge remain unanswered.

The main possibility for surprise is if he addresses the ongoing work within the Fed on conditional policy rules. The last set of minutes referred several times to discussions of rules and more open-end policy commitments. Up to now, the Fed has been using its policy instruments in an unconditional way, in that it announces a program of fixed duration and fixed amount. Most academic work, as will be discussed in the formal program at Jackson Hole, suggests that a rule linking the policy instrument to economic outcomes or the outlook performs better.

The idea is that the Fed could agree, for instance, to keep the funds rate target at zero as long as they have an economic forecast that is short of their mission. The problem is that the mission at the heart of Fed policy-making is ambiguous. In the Federal Reserve Act, the Congress tells the Fed to foster maximum employment and stable prices but is silent on how to weigh deviations from the two objectives or how quickly those deviations should be eliminated. The monetary policymakers at the Fed are a diverse group of people who disagree on how to fill this silence. If they can come to terms with this issue, then they can offer more open-ended assurance to financial market participants and the public at large.

Chairman Bernanke is unlikely to offer a Solomonic solution, but his speech would be more interesting if he relayed where they are in the process.

Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”


Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banking mafia.


Value Areas:
ES 1401.00 / 1397.00
POC... 1398.00
YM 13022 / 12985
NQ 2763.50 / 2753.50

Larry Levin
President & Founder- Trading Advantage
TradingAdvantage.com]]> http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=259
http://www.asiaforexmentor.com/webpages/nzd.gif

Forex Pair: Nzd Jpy
A double pin formed at the 365ema. However we do not take these kind of trades and sure enough, the pin bar failed.
Some reasons:
- The pin bar blended into the whole picture. If you zoom out, you can’t see the pin .
Remember we want to take pins that protrude out from surrounding prices. This one was relatively beside the surrounding bars.
- A mountain of resistance blocking its upwards path –
the 200, 150 ema, 10 and 25 ema.
- Pair is in a downtrend as shown by the 10 25 strategy.
Therefore although we have the 365 moving average as the backing. This is a trade where we would not enter.


Ezekiel Chew
Asia's #1 Forex Mentor]]> http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=258
FOREX TRADING STRATEGIES
I believe that this is one of the most important and mind buggling question that most traders face.
Forex trading strategies Example: Forex Pair Eur Chf

http://www.asiaforexmentor.com/webpages/forextrend.gif

In the forex pair above, the overall trend is in a downtrend (marked by the red line)
But in the current movement it is in a short term uptrend (marked by the yellow circle)
So to say if you are in the current situation – which happens all the time.
Forex Trading Strategies -> How would you trade?
Forex Trading Strategies -> Would you trade up or down?
Forex Trading Strategies -> Would you trade with the main down trend or the short term up trend?
Forex Trading Strategies: Which trend should I look? The long term or short term?

Generally speaking, of course the bigger trend holds more weight right?
So should you still trade down?.. Not really..
Although it is the bigger trend that holds more weight, it is the short term current trend that depicts it’s movement.
The main question lies in what kind of trader are you.
- If you are the type who wants to trail for the long run. Then you should wait for the trend to turn back down and then trade down.
- If you are like me, who takes profits off the table with a reasonable risk reward ratio. Then we will trade the current short term trend.
Forex Trading Strategies: Which trend should I look? The long term or short term?

You see, although the long term is down. But you should NEVER trade against the current short term trend.
Because this short term may turn to a bigger trend. And this short term trend may be the indication of a trend reversal.
So, if you have a good profit taking strategy. The answer will be to trade the short term trend and not the long term trend.
But of course, the best scenario is that we have the long term and the short term trend in the same direction.
It happens, but it does not happen all the time.
So in scenarios like the above chart example. I hope you have gotten your answer!
I hope you have gain something from this quick forex trading strategies trade example.
If you find this post interesting, do comment on it!

Ezekiel Chew
]]> http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=257 http://www.asiaforexmentor.com/webpages/2ndchance.gif

In Forex trading, price always gives us a 2nd chance to place our trades before it takes off.
It can be considered as a 2nd chance or you can consider it as a confirmation bar.
In the chart above, Aud Usd.
We can see the first highlighted blue box showing a pin bar.
As this was not the nicest pin bar of all. We did not take it.
Or if just to say – we missed this pin bar for some reasons. Either by choice or we were not at the chart when it happened.
As mentioned, price always gives us a 2nd chance or a confirmation bar – which is the 2nd highlighted blue box showing a pin bar.
Telling us a great hint that the train is sounding its horn and is taking off – getting the last few passengers to board the train.
Usually Most of them time, the train will take off after that, heading our direction.
In the chart above, besides the pin bar. There are several reasons (confluence factors) which we had entered on the trade.
1) Overall uptrend movement
2) Pin bar at the price pivot area 0.94900
3) Trend line confluence
4) Double confirming pin bar
Remember – the more the confluence. The higher the probability of the trade.
Here’s another example:
http://www.asiaforexmentor.com/webpages/2ndchance1.gif

Forex trading Pair: Gbp Aud
I need not explain much on this as its clearly shown in the chart.
1) Double pin bar
2) Price pivot area of 1.63500
3) Swing Low
4) Divergence
There are plenty of examples in regards to this if you look closely at the charts itself.
If you find this post interesting, do comment on it!

Ezekiel Chew
Asia's #1 Forex Mentor]]> http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=256 Guys.. this is something important which i want you guys to think about.
Most of us spend most of our time looking in charts, looking for good entries to
enter. And we spend all our time in that.
But are we doing the right thing all these while?
let us step out of our charts and look at the entire forex picture.
Let us reflect on how we can improve our forex game.
what are the things that we are doing wrong and should remove.
what are the things that we should be doing, but did not do?
what are the things that we are doing correctly and should keep doing
Let us look deeper..
What is our general risk reward ratio, – is it good enough for our account size
to grow and cover our loss we take in the mean while
what is our risk % size – is it too much or too little?
Did you enter the same position size on EVERY trade? are you discipline enough
to do that.
Price Action – Remember this is king in forex, did you enter with price action or
without it?
Emotions – (Entry) do we let emotions affect us as to when we enter the trade
(afraid of missing a trade)
is it because of missing a trade, we fail to enter on the break of the price
action bar + 10 pips. Instead we entered on the close of the bar and made a lot
of losses.
Emotions – (Exits) do we exit our trade base on emotions. How ofter does it
happen. did we stick to our initial plan?
Stop loss – did we shift our stop loss accordingly. Did we ever shift back our
stop loss because we hope it will go back to our direction we wanted?
Picky – are we losing money because we are not picky enough on our trades. Do we
enter base on 3 to 5 reasons or only 1 reason?
Overtrading – do we tend to over trade because we do not want to waste our time
looking at charts but not entering. did we enter more trades to grow our account
but instead make more losses.
Above are some reasons.
i want you guys to step back and think of the reasons that is affecting you. I
want all of us to improve our game further. and not just trade blindly.
Remember – CONFLUENCE is the key. Confluence means many reasons and not only 1
reason to enter.
Confluence makes you picky, confluence removes overtrading.
Postion sizing and money management is VERY IMPORTANT. If you are still not
implementing it. PLEASE CLOSE YOUR ACCOUNT. i do not want you to lose any more
money. PERIOD.
Remember to COMPOUND. this is what makes us FULL time forex traders and not
wannabes.

Ezekiel Chew
Asia's #1 Forex Mentor]]> http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=253 Guys.. this is something important which i want you guys to think about.
Most of us spend most of our time looking in charts, looking for good entries to
enter. And we spend all our time in that.
But are we doing the right thing all these while?
let us step out of our charts and look at the entire forex picture.
Let us reflect on how we can improve our forex game.
what are the things that we are doing wrong and should remove.
what are the things that we should be doing, but did not do?
what are the things that we are doing correctly and should keep doing
Let us look deeper..
What is our general risk reward ratio, – is it good enough for our account size
to grow and cover our loss we take in the mean while
what is our risk % size – is it too much or too little?
Did you enter the same position size on EVERY trade? are you discipline enough
to do that.
Price Action – Remember this is king in forex, did you enter with price action or
without it?
Emotions – (Entry) do we let emotions affect us as to when we enter the trade
(afraid of missing a trade)
is it because of missing a trade, we fail to enter on the break of the price
action bar + 10 pips. Instead we entered on the close of the bar and made a lot
of losses.
Emotions – (Exits) do we exit our trade base on emotions. How ofter does it
happen. did we stick to our initial plan?
Stop loss – did we shift our stop loss accordingly. Did we ever shift back our
stop loss because we hope it will go back to our direction we wanted?
Picky – are we losing money because we are not picky enough on our trades. Do we
enter base on 3 to 5 reasons or only 1 reason?
Overtrading – do we tend to over trade because we do not want to waste our time
looking at charts but not entering. did we enter more trades to grow our account
but instead make more losses.
Above are some reasons.
i want you guys to step back and think of the reasons that is affecting you. I
want all of us to improve our game further. and not just trade blindly.
Remember – CONFLUENCE is the key. Confluence means many reasons and not only 1
reason to enter.
Confluence makes you picky, confluence removes overtrading.
Postion sizing and money management is VERY IMPORTANT. If you are still not
implementing it. PLEASE CLOSE YOUR ACCOUNT. i do not want you to lose any more
money. PERIOD.
Remember to COMPOUND. this is what makes us FULL time forex traders and not
wannabes.

Ezekiel Chew
Asia's #1 Forex Mentor]]> http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=252 http://www.asiaforexmentor.com/webpages/2ndchance.gif

In Forex trading, price always gives us a 2nd chance to place our trades before it takes off.
It can be considered as a 2nd chance or you can consider it as a confirmation bar.
In the chart above, Aud Usd.
We can see the first highlighted blue box showing a pin bar.
As this was not the nicest pin bar of all. We did not take it.
Or if just to say – we missed this pin bar for some reasons. Either by choice or we were not at the chart when it happened.
As mentioned, price always gives us a 2nd chance or a confirmation bar – which is the 2nd highlighted blue box showing a pin bar.
Telling us a great hint that the train is sounding its horn and is taking off – getting the last few passengers to board the train.
Usually Most of them time, the train will take off after that, heading our direction.
In the chart above, besides the pin bar. There are several reasons (confluence factors) which we had entered on the trade.
1) Overall uptrend movement
2) Pin bar at the price pivot area 0.94900
3) Trend line confluence
4) Double confirming pin bar
Remember – the more the confluence. The higher the probability of the trade.
Here’s another example:

http://www.asiaforexmentor.com/webpages/2ndchance1.gif

Forex trading Pair: Gbp Aud
I need not explain much on this as its clearly shown in the chart.
1) Double pin bar
2) Price pivot area of 1.63500
3) Swing Low
4) Divergence
There are plenty of examples in regards to this if you look closely at the charts itself.
If you find this post interesting, do comment on it.

Ezekiel Chew
http://www.asiaforexmentor.com


]]> http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=251 http://www.asiaforexmentor.com/webpages/fib.gif


Alot of guys out there have enquires on how to draw a proper fibonacci in forex trading.
Whether they are drawing in the right direction?
And how do they know that the fibonacci is drawn correctly?
This video will show you how to go about it.
(I apologise for the poor resolution quality which i had set wrongly, the next video will be better!)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bF6XYAeNYM0&feature=player_embedded

If you like this post, don’t forget to comment on it.


Ezekiel Chew
Asia's #1 Forex Mentor
]]> http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=249
Forex Trading: Usd Chf pair
http://www.asiaforexmentor.com/webpages/usdchf2pin.gif

In the chart above shows 2 highlighted pin bars.
If a trader took the first price action pin bar (marked as 1) and placed his stop loss right at the bottom of the pin -
He would get stopped out and would have possibly missed the winning move upwards.
How can we improve this?
- This is the reason why i always recommend traders to place their stoploss 10 pips below the edge of the pin. By doing so you would still be in the trade and not get stopped out by the next bar.
- If you did get stopped out by the next bar. You would have gotten back your pips in this trade as the next bar formed another pin bar (marked as 2). This forms a double pin bar. A setup that shows that price is indeed going up.
Therefore you would still get back into the trade on this pin bar and took it right up.
Alot of traders when got stopped out by at the first pin would not have taken the 2nd pin due to the fact that they had made a loss in this pair, and they “feel” that this pair is no longer reliable. And they “feel” that since the first pin has been stopped out, the trend is no longer heading the direction they wanted.
This is a common syndrome by most traders – Dwelling on the PAST Trades
Remember – every trade you take is a new trade. And is a fresh beginning.
Forget what happened on the last trade, regardless of whether that is a winning or losing trade.
Focus on seeing what is right in the new trade. And not let PAST perceptions affect your judgement.
Therefore in this trade, had you not dwelled on the first pin that had been stopped out.
You would have seen that it formed a double pin bar! And this double pin bar is in the right upward trend movement.
You would have taken this trade without hesitation.

Ezekiel Chew
http://www.asiaforexmentor.com
]]> http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=247 http://www.asiaforexmentor.com/webpages/eurcadaudcad.png

Forex trading pair: EUR CAD , AUD CAD
Many traders asked me, why do you look at so many forex pairs.
This post will be a good reply towards the question.
In the forex chart above, AUD CAD and EUR CAD.
Both pairs have the same denominator pair – CAD.
Therefore, both pairs should be co-related in one way or the other.
In this scenario, both pairs formed a pin bar as highlighted (blue box) on the 150 moving average (orange line).
But what we can see on the end result is that – the Eur Cad price action pin turned out to be a good one with profits taken and the aud cad had no result.
Forex Price Action – Why did one Price Action Pin work and not the other

When trades of co-related pair happens, i would only choose the best one of out the 2 in this example.
And we would have chosen the EUR CAD.
Why?
Lets look a little deeper for further analysis.
1) When the aud cad formed the pin bar – there is impending HIGH impact news on the AUD pair. As shown in the top left hand corner of our Asia Forex Mentor news indicator.
2) When we compare both the price action pin bars. The Eur Cad was a better one.
With the opening and closing at the top of the pin bar. And the closed was above the 150 moving average.
The aud cad forex pin bar however looked more like a neutral bar than a pin bar – with its opening and closing in the middle.
3) The Eur Cad had tested the 150 moving average recently before and it held well.
With this 3 factors alone, we would have taken the EUR CAD instead of the AUD CAD. And would have taken profits already as marked in the chart.
So my answer to the question on why do i look at so many forex charts?
- Had we not have the eur cad on our chart and only the aud cad. We would have taken the aud cad and missed out on the Eur Cad.
- The more charts we look at, the more charts we can compare – To choose only the BEST ones.
Thats the reason for our high winning probabilities.
- Our system works on all pairs, which is why we have so many opportunities in the market.
This is just one of the ways on how trade,

Ezekiel Chew
http://www.asiaforexmentor.com
]]> http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=246
I Would like to share with you guys one of the questions i received in regards to a forex trade.
Forex Pair: Usd Jpy
http://www.asiaforexmentor.com/webpages/usd.gif

Question:
can u please tell me how to over come a situation like (See Chart above).. its
really looking a great pin but it didn’t triggered, and it is also with trend.. the trade
reached the stop loss and now its again returning to normal. can u please tell me to how
to understand a situation like that?
Answer:

http://www.asiaforexmentor.com/webpages/usd1.gif

Price is making a higher lows and higher highs as highlighted by the red circles.
It means the trend is changing and is possibly heading up.
So what happens now is that, you are not trading with the trend but against it.
Its a can be a short term trend shift movement.
The forex price action pin bar formed because price shot up and hit the price pivot (white Line), in which price will naturally find resistance and head back down, resulting in the pin bar.
Therefore, we would not have taken this forex pin bar on such circumtances.
I hope you guys learned something from a simple forex trading scenario and I looking forward to seeing you in our group where i teach the full forex trading system -
AFM Winning Forex Course
See you on the other side my friend,

Ezekiel Chew
http://www.asiaforexmentor.com
]]> http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=245 http://www.asiaforexmentor.com/webpages/usdchfh4c.gif


I like to call this a ping pong trade.
A nice forex price action pin bar formed on the forex pair: Usd Chf
Its a price action forex pin bar that is in line with the uptrend. (Remember to always trade with the trend)
Moreover, it has the 150 moving average (marked by the orange line) as support.
By just judging the above points alone and not adding other confluences, its a already a good trade to enter.
So where is our First take profit area? The blue line of course. Our 200 moving average.
Price will definitely stop at the area for some resistance. So that will be our take profit target.
So its pretty simple. Price touches the 150, and bounces back up to the 200. Just like a ping pong.
Forex Trading Systems – Ping Pong trade Follow up

http://www.asiaforexmentor.com/webpages/usdchfh4d.gif

Price indeed reached the 200 moving average to find resistance. And we have gotten our profit.
A quick profit we got here.
What we can learn from this scenario:
Forex trading need not be hard. By looking at it in this way, it is plain and simple.
No difficult forex indicators whatsoever. Just price action with moving average = Profits
Check out our Winning Asia Forex Mentor Price Action Forex Course where i teach you the exact FULL Forex Trading Systems that i personally use.
See you on the other side my friend,

Ezekiel Chew
http://www.asiaforexmentor.com
]]> http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=244 Forex trading pair: Usd Jpy
This post will show you guys how does the different time frames link to each other. And how and why do we take the trade.
Lets start off with the usd jpy 30 min chart.
http://www.asiaforexmentor.com/webpages/usdjpy30.gif

I know i should not be posting this as i strongly do not recommend new traders out there to look at the lower time frame. However this post is to show you how and why did i entered on this trade.
In the chart above, which is a 30 min chart. I spotted a really nice long nose pin bar that protrudes out from the following prices.
Do note that, i rarely trade the 30 min chart. However, i took this trade is because it links with the higher time frame.
If you look at the chart here,
http://www.asiaforexmentor.com/webpages/usdjpyd2.gif

This is the daily time frame which i zoomed out. We can see that the usd jpy is at its swing low. And it is at the lowest point among the years. More over we see divergence in the macd as shown in the red line in the chart.
This is when i love the best.
A Super All Time Swing Low! – I am prepared to take an up trend buy order. Therefore, this is why i zoom to the 30 min chart (shown above) and found this perfect pin bar right at the ALL TIME SWING LOW. I knew this was it!
Therefore as shown in the chart, i place a buy stop order at the orange line which i marked as “buy stop”.
And sure enough, the buy order was triggered.
Lets look at how the 30 min chart link to the 1hr chart.
http://www.asiaforexmentor.com/webpages/usdjpy1.gif

Right when the 30 min pin bar was formed, the 1 hour chart as seen above formed a pin bar too.
Now you know this is a good trade. A pin bar at the 30min and the 1hr time frame.
And the pin was triggered by the 3rd bar with a nice long bullish bar. Nice!
And all these while our stop loss is placed right below the pin bar.
Lets look at the 4hr time frame.
http://www.asiaforexmentor.com/webpages/usdjpy4.gif

In the 4hr time frame, there was no price action confirmation. It happens, sometimes when we look back our charts, and we see price reversing. But we do not see price action confirmation. There was no price action confirmation in the 4hr time frame, but that does not mean there is no price action confirmation in the other time frame!
And we do see a slight divergence too in the usd jpy 4hr time frame in the chart above.
Lets now look at the daily time frame -
http://www.asiaforexmentor.com/webpages/usdjpyd.gif

After the 30 min and the 1 hr pin bar formed, the day ended and in the daily time frame:
It now formed a daily pin bar at the swing low!
What more can you ask for?!
I hope you guys can now see how does forex trading actually works by looking at the whole picture and not just a specific time frame. This gives us confidence which comes from knowledge and understanding of how the market works.
Forex trading will now become a business if you treat it this way.
An if you guys have not join our group, i hope to see you there.
I will be there to guide you along as a personal mentor.
To an Awesome Trading as Always,

Ezekiel Chew

]]>